报刊文章
WESTERN EUROPEAN PASSENGER CAR SALES RISE 1.8% IN SEPTEMBER
October 12, 2005
Frankfurt, Germany
According to CSM Worldwide, the market leader in automotive forecasting and market intelligence, the Western European car sales market showed positive signs in September, slowly gaining momentum from strong demand in 2Q and 3Q 2005. As a result, the CSM Worldwide European Light Vehicle Sales Forecast calls for the region to remain on target to reach 16.48 million units in 2005.
Historically, September has always been the most important month of the 3rd quarter, representing 9.5% of total-year volumes. Many consumers continued to take advantage of the end-of-summer campaigns widely publicized by the majority of car manufacturers across the continent. Total Western Europe passenger car sales in September reached 1.38 million units, a slight increase of 1.8% in comparison to the same month of 2004. As a result, nine-month accumulated sales across the region reached 11.24 million units, slightly up 0.5% year-over-year.
Looking forward, the Western European SAAR – seasonally adjusted annualised selling rate – indicates full-year passenger car sales reaching 14.65 million units, a slight increase over last year’s results, which were largely inflated by last-minute registration rushes in November and December.
Summary
- September sales growth was fueled by Germany, Spain, Italy and France. Meanwhile, demand continues to slack in the United Kingdom..
- Demand in Germany has picked up since April, posting six consecutive months of growth, as September sales increased 3.5% and year-to-date sales rose 3.3% over last year. The positive momentum was expected to continue with the IAA in Frankfurt and its wide-scale launch of new product initiatives. CSM projects the full-year selling rate to reach 3.34 million units, up 2.6% vs. 2004.
- Sales in Spain continue to surge, increasing 2.5% year over year. The market has been strong since 2Q 2003, and high demand continues to suggest another record year of sales. Full-year sales target 1.59 million units, up 2.4% vs. 2004. In order to sustain sales growth, the government announced it would extend its PREVER incentive scheme until the end of 2006. A deduction in the registration tax is to be applied to the purchase of a new vehicle when an old vehicle of more than ten years for cars and seven years for commercial vehicles is simultaneously scrapped.
- Demand in France has posted three consecutive quarters of growth, as September sales increased 7.4% and year-to-date sales rose 4.7% over last year. The full-year selling rate projects the market towards 2.14 million units, up 4.6% vs. 2004.
- The car market in Italy has reported a slight up-tick in demand following a disastrous start to the year. At present, year-to-date sales are decreasing 2.3% and a full-year selling rate suggests that the market will report sales of 2.32 million units, confirming a negative full-year outlook that is down 3.2%.
- In the United Kingdom, car sales have experienced the complete opposite cyclical trend in comparison to the region’s larger markets. Sales have clearly slowed since 2Q 2004, posting negative growth rates over five consecutive quarters following four years of consecutive growth. Car sales fell 3.2% in September, which represents one of the highest selling months due to the upgrade of new registration plates. The full-year selling rate projects the market towards 2.51 million units, down 5.5% vs. 2004.
CSM Worldwide (www.csmauto.com) supports more than 350 of the world's top automakers, suppliers and financial organizations with market intelligence and forecasting services. With corporate offices in metro Detroit, CSM Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Paris, Sao Paulo, Singapore, Shanghai, Bangalore, and Budapest.
